🚀AEC Proposes New Boundaries: North Sydney Seat Abolished
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The S&P/ASX 200 closed 25.4 points lower, down 0.33%.
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 25.4 points lower at 7724.3, 0.36% from its session high and 0.08% from its low. For the week, the XJO finished down 136 points or 1.7% lower. Only three of the 11 major ASX sectors finished in the black today: Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.19%), Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ), and Health Care (XHJ).
The Gold (XGD) sub-index (-1.6%) was tough, while Resources (XJR) and Energy (XEJ) were anti-twinning, marking a brutal week for Aussie resources investors. The broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) also saw advancers lagged decliners. [Read more]
💡Here are a few headlines from this morning:
Teenager's Phone Contains 60,000 Photos in Terror Case. A court has heard that authorities are examining almost 60,000 images and videos from the phone of a teenager accused of committing a terror act related to the alleged stabbing death of a bishop at a church in south-west Sydney.
New Avian Influenza Outbreak Confirmed in Victorian Farm. The sixth Victorian farm in the Golden Plains Shire has confirmed the high pathogenicity H7N3 strain of avian influenza virus, indicating the ongoing quarantine measures in place to protect the area.
🗳️ HEADSTART
Redistribution of NSW Seats: North Sydney to Disappear
The new draft boundaries of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) call for the abolition of the federal seat of North Sydney.
The Background
The Electoral Commissioner reduced New South Wales' entitlement to the House of Representatives from 47 to 46 on Thursday, July 27, 2023.
When a state's House of Representatives allocation changes, the Electoral Commission orders a redistribution of New South Wales under Section 59 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918.
Why has it happened ?
NSW must lose a seat due to slower population growth, with the proposed division of North Sydney between Labour, Liberal, and independent seats. Independent Kylea Tink won North Sydney in 2022, while boundaries in southern NSW will change, with Liberal Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor's Hume seat moving closer to Sydney suburbs.
Kylea Tink MP
As the proud independent representative for the people of North Sydney, I am obviously disappointed by today’s draft boundary announcement from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). But this has never been about me.
My focus remains on the community of North Sydney, the incredible team working with me, and the thousands of volunteers and donors who helped bring North Sydney’s voice back in 2022.
I will continue to stand up for and fight for the people of North Sydney on the issues that matter most to our community.
This includes continuing to hold both major parties to account for their lack of ambition and action on climate change. North Sydney is also desperate for measures to tackle housing affordability and the cost of living, address intergenerational inequality, protect the environment for future generations, and promote a smart, future-focused economy.
The North Sydney community will continue to experience the same level of representation that they’ve had over the past two years. I remain committed to the independent political movement and will continue to support it wherever and whenever I can.
Why does this matter ?
These redistricting changes may lead to different representatives for voters in these areas in future elections, potentially influencing the political climate. Voters should be informed of these changes and how they may affect their political representation.
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🔥 HOT COPY
The Diverse Growth Trends in Australian Real Estate
Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, Australian home values have risen by 35.6%. The market has seen a strong period of growth throughout the pandemic, followed by a brief but sharp drop in values when the rate-hiking cycle began.
The Revelation
By November 2023, the market had fully recovered in value and reached new record highs each month since. But below the headline figure, the market has been driven higher by a lot of different growth across the capital cities and regional markets. This diversity in housing trends has led to many wondering why cities like Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide are always in high demand, while at the other end of the spectrum, Melbourne and Hobart are experiencing lower demand.
The markets that have done the best have usually started from a low base, with housing conditions and demographic trends pretty weak in the years before the pandemic. The differences in capital growth trends are down to the varying supply and demand in each city. Migration, affordability factors, and the number of new homes being built also affect the supply and demand dynamic.
The annual growth usually peaks around the time the combined capital city market starts to gain ground. In the past 15 years, the biggest range of growth was 23.7 percentage points in the year to September 2022. This was when the combined capital city market was just moving into an annual decline, due to rate rises. At that time, Adelaide home values were still on the rise, up 17.1%, while Sydney home values were down 6.6%.
Eliza Owen, CoreLogic
According to Eliza Owen, Head of Research at CoreLogic, it's possible that when the market shifts, like when interest rates rise, some cities are more responsive than others. This can create a bigger range in capital growth outcomes in the short term. It's easy to see why Sydney, with its expensive, highly indebted market, would see a quicker response in value changes when interest rates rise.
Annual growth has also slowed down recently in the combined capital cities because of high interest rates, bad economic conditions, and affordability issues that are making it harder for home values to keep rising. This could mean that growth in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide is going to slow down, and we might see the range of growth narrow across the capital cities.
Strong Market
The housing market is seeing more demand than supply in places like Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, and Sydney, while Melbourne and Hobart are seeing less demand than supply. Melbourne has the lowest ratio, with 98,223 properties added in the past 12 months, the highest of any capital city. The extra housing stock in Melbourne is shown in the total number of properties on the market, which is 13% above the average for the past five years. Since the GFC, Victoria has seen a pretty high level of new homes being built, which has helped to soak up demand without pushing prices as high as in other states and territories. It's important to understand the demand side of the housing market, and interstate migration trends play a big part in that.
The Data and Sources
The ABS data shows that overseas migration, particularly from NSW and VIC, has made up for a shortfall in interstate migration. However, overseas migrants usually aren't that interested in buying, with recent arrivals more likely to rent. Melbourne is seeing some pretty high rent prices, while housing values have dropped. Cities like Perth and Adelaide have seen a lot of growth recently, with Perth seeing the biggest jump in home values since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart, Darwin, and Canberra all saw big drops, but they've come off a big value increase.
Where do I go from here?
Owen said that in the next few months, the range of capital growth performance is likely to stay pretty high. This is based on some pretty solid fundamentals in the Perth market and ongoing issues of oversupply in some pockets of Melbourne and Hobart, which are putting downward pressure on values. Longer term, affordability may become a drawcard in some cities where prices have been more stable recently, especially as the value gap between cities closes. This would help to keep capital growth stable in places like Melbourne, Hobart, and Canberra, and it might even slow down the rate of growth in Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane.
Why does this matter?
This matters because keeping capital growth on an even keel and narrowing the value gap between cities can help create a more balanced and sustainable property market overall. It also makes sure that investment opportunities are fairly distributed across different regions, which helps to promote economic growth and development.
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🌎 World Tonight
🇷🇺 Russia Putin promised Friday to "immediately" order a cease-fire in Ukraine and begin negotiations if Kyiv withdraws troops from four regions Moscow annexed in 2022 and renounces NATO membership. Ukraine called Putin's offer "manipulative" and "absurd.".
🇿🇦 South Africa . In a surprising move, the African National Congress and its biggest rival, the White-led Democratic Alliance, joined forces on Friday to work together in South Africa's new government of national unity. This marks the end of 30 years of ANC political dominance.
🇾🇪 Yemen. The Philippines said Friday that the crew of the Greek-owned vessel Tutor, which was damaged by Yemeni Houthi militants in the Red Sea, should be rescued within the day. We're still looking for one sailor who's missing.
🇮🇹 Italy. On Friday, the second day of their summit, Group of Seven leaders zeroed in on migration. They were looking for ways to combat trafficking and increase investment in countries where migrants often embark on their often-fatal journeys.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom. Despite his unknown cause of death, late television doctor Michael Mosley's body is expected to be returned home with his family this weekend.
🏅VIEWPOINT 360
Why ICC warrant against Netanyahu has baffled the West
By Vineet Thakur, Leiden University and Peter Vale, University of Pretoria in Leiden
A US politician allegedly said the ICC was 'built for Africa and thugs like Putin' and in a way they were right. That might now be finally changing.
Israel’s most recent bombing of a refugee camp in Rafah, which killed at least 45 Palestinians, flew in the face of international law. [Read more]
📰 Good News, Inspiring, Positive Stories
RODD & GUNN REDEFINES THE LODGE, QUEENSTOWN.
Rodd & Gunn is thrilled to celebrate the grand reopening of its first experiential retail space – The Lodge in Queenstown, New Zealand. Following an extensive renovation, the newly opened refurbishment breathes fresh life into the iconic venue, infusing modern design elements whilst honouring the familiar essence of the brand’s spiritual home.
Initially opening its doors back in August 2016, The Lodge’s standout addition is the bespoke bar, featuring intricate timber details, a striking black marble bar top, a pressed steel bar face, aged smoked mirror, and polished brass highlights. The elegant build provides the perfect spot for enjoying cocktails, crafted with the finest local distilleries of the South Island.
Helmed by Executive Chef, Matt Lambert, the newly expanded commercial-grade kitchen has produced a refreshed dining menu. From steamed green lip mussels to cacio e pepe and Lake Ohau wagyu t-bone steak, Chef Lambert’s culinary expertise ensures a refined and memorable gastronomic experience. [Read more]
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